Looking ahead to the year 2019, China's economic growth remai

Pubdate:2019-01-11 10:43  Writer:admin  Source:ANDI

Global times comprehensive report
  
  What is 2019 going to be like for the world after the politically tumultuous and economically tumultuous year of 2018? At the turn of the old and new, the topic has generated a lot of buzz in the global media. As an important engine of world economic growth, China has always been the focus of analysts' forecasts and prospects. In the New Year message delivered by Chinese President xi jinping, some people saw the determination of the world's second largest economy to further reform and opening-up in 2019. Through external factors such as trade wars and global economic fluctuations, some predict that China's economic growth may face greater downward pressure in the New Year. As China and the United States have sparred over many issues over the past year, some predict that the frictions and games between rising and established powers are destined to continue... In 2019, there will be both opportunities and challenges. What remains unchanged is China's momentum and confidence to rise to the challenge. While views on short-term fluctuations vary, few serious analysts doubt the long-term trend of China's continued rise. What is certain, says the Japan times, is that China will be truly proud of its remarkable achievements when it celebrates the People's Republic of China's 70th birthday in 2019. China has emerged from a poor and backward country in a remarkable way that has won the respect of the world.
  
  "" the chang 'e-4 probe is expected to land on the far side of the moon for the first time in the first few days of 2019." "China's first domestically built aircraft carrier is expected to be delivered to the navy as early as August 2019. In addition to these representative specific events, there is a more concerned topic for China in 2019: how will China's economy perform under downward pressure?
  
  CNN's argument is that after decades of rapid growth, China's economy is slowing and it's going through a difficult 2018, and 2019 could be even worse. The article cited debt problems, trade wars and other factors weighing on growth, adding that "the biggest uncertainty is how a trade war will evolve in 2019."
  
  There are, of course, many different opinions. Since the outbreak of a trade war last year, there has been more talk in the west of a "slowdown in China's economy," but the country's 2018 growth forecast is still between 6.5 percent and 6.6 percent, according to Dan sternboko, an economic analyst at the Nigerian business daily online. The government's GDP growth target is likely to slow due to international headwinds, as well as cyclical growth slowdowns, the environment, debt and other issues, but overall the slowdown is normal after years of rapid industrialisation. If the Chinese government ignores its commitment to poverty eradication, improved living standards and sustainable development, it can achieve faster growth, but at the expense of people's livelihoods and the environment. On the other hand, policymakers will not let the economy slow much. While growth should moderate, Chinese living standards should continue to rise.
  
  Japan's Fuji TV said that 2018 is not an easy year for China and the world economy. It believes that China can overcome the difficulty of trade war in 2019 and maintain the economic growth rate ahead of many countries.
  
  China remains the world's manufacturing powerhouse. Ensuring economic growth in the New Year is important to China and important to the world. The 2019 world economic rankings published by the center for economic and business research, a British think tank, predict that China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy by 2032, the express and other media reported. Last year's forecast was that China would become the world's largest economy by 2030.
  
  If the sino-us trade conflict has left a deep mark on 2018, how the two great powers get along in 2019 remains one of the world's biggest concerns. Around the New Year, there were some positive signs in china-us relations. On Saturday, xi jinping made a regular phone call with US President Donald trump, who extended New Year greetings and wishes to xi and the Chinese people. Chinese and us leaders exchanged congratulatory letters to mark the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries on Monday.
  
  Japan's jiji news agency said the world is watching the china-us trade talks to begin in January, and countries around the world are eager to know the outcome of whether the two countries will end their trade war or continue to impose tariffs on each other. The political incentive to strike a deal with China and the eu will become stronger over time as the stimulus wears off and the cost of protectionism becomes more keenly felt in the us in 2019, the financial times said, citing analysis by European economist florian hance. Hong Kong's south China morning post believes that as smartphones enter the 5G era in 2019, competition between China and the United States in the high-tech sector will be fierce, and Chinese technology companies will continue to face challenges.
  
  Eurozone sharply cuts growth forecast: UK media reflect fears of trade war
  
  Economic growth forecasts for the eurozone have fallen to a new low this year, reflecting fears of a global trade war and the impact of political uncertainty on economic activity, British media said.
  
  The revision is particularly sharp for Germany, which has been the engine of eurozone growth for years. Germany is forecast to grow less this year than France, while Italy, the eurozone's third-largest economy, is also expected to be one of the worst performers, with growth forecast at just 0.7 per cent in 2019.
  
  Economists polled by the UK's consensus economic forecasting company expect gross domestic product growth in the eurozone to be just under 1.6 per cent this year -- 0.4 percentage points below the most optimistic forecast made in March 2018. This would mark the second consecutive year of slowing growth in the eurozone, the report said. The economy is expected to grow 1.9 percent in 2018. The euro zone grew 2.4 percent in 2017, its fastest pace in a decade.
  
  "We tend to see the current situation as a mirror image of the euphoria at the end of 2017, when forecasters concluded that growth would be closer to 3 percent in the distant future," said Klaus vesterson, chief eurozone economist at pantheon macroeconomics research. James Nixon, chief European economist at Oxford economics, said the lower growth forecast for the euro zone reflected weakness in the second half of 2018, partly because of the apparent impact of new emissions standards on the German car industry.
  
  The report said current forecasts for German economic growth in 2019 were below 1.5 percent, 0.4 percentage points lower than the consensus forecast for March 2018. Data released on Monday showed new foreign industrial orders for German companies contracted 3.2 percent in November 2018 from the previous month. Separately, a survey of market sentiment showed expectations among German investors at their lowest since August 2012.
  
  Germany's economy contracted in the third quarter of 2018 on a quarter-on-quarter basis for the first time since 2015 because of weak domestic demand and shrinking exports. But Mr Nixon said the cut in eurozone growth forecasts also reflected "continuing concerns about a new wave of protectionism emanating from the us" and the impact of protests in France in the final quarter of 2018. Trade has been a factor in the sharp drop, reflecting global tensions over the us-china tariff war, the report said. Economists now expect nominal export growth in the euro zone to be 2.9 percent in 2019, nearly a percentage point lower than in the spring of 2018.